Middleweight
3 Rounds
Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(51.2%)
Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joaquin Buckley has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Joaquin Buckley
Red Corner
VS
Antonio Arroyo
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
32
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joaquin Buckley
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25Antonio ArroyoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Andre Muniz · Nov 19L
vs Deron Winn · Dec 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joaquin BuckleyMetricAntonio Arroyo
3.62
Strikes / min
2.82
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
2.02
58%
Strike defense
50%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
1.14
70%
Takedown defense
41%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joaquin BuckleyAntonio Arroyo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Antonio Arroyo(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.1-36.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Joaquin Buckley
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights16
Antonio Arroyo
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3