Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 18, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(66.1%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Joe Duffy has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Joe Duffy
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe DuffyL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 16W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19Joel AlvarezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe DuffyMetricJoel Alvarez
2.68
Strikes / min
4.53
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
54%
Strike defense
53%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
0.18
64%
Takedown defense
46%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe DuffyJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Duffy(8 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.4-16.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Joe Duffy
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10