Lightweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Barberena won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupJoe Ellenberger: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Joe Ellenberger wins(64.4%)
Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Bryan Barberena has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Joe Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Barberena
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe Ellenberger
oldest →latest
W
vs James Moontasri · Jun 14Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe EllenbergerMetricBryan Barberena
1.62
Strikes / min
5.35
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
48%
Strike defense
44%
3.17
TDs / 15 min
0.13
0%
Takedown defense
50%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.83Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe EllenbergerBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Ellenberger(2 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Joe Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19