Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, June 26, 2011·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsCurt Warburton: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Joe Lauzon wins(60.2%)
Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Curt Warburton has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Joe Lauzon has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Curt Warburton has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Curt Warburton
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
42
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe Lauzon
oldest →latest
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19Curt Warburton
oldest →latest
L
vs Spencer Fisher · Oct 10W
vs Maciej Jewtuszko · Feb 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe LauzonMetricCurt Warburton
2.84
Strikes / min
2.13
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
54%
Strike defense
43%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
2.35
54%
Takedown defense
83%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe LauzonCurt Warburton
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Curt Warburton(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Joe Lauzon
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20
Curt Warburton
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3