Lightweight
3 Rounds
Evan Dunham won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Friday, December 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(59.3%)
Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
41
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe Lauzon
oldest →latest
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe LauzonMetricEvan Dunham
2.84
Strikes / min
5.33
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
54%
Strike defense
61%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
1.82
54%
Takedown defense
79%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 4.34 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe LauzonEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.02.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Joe Lauzon
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17