Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 4, 2012·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsJamie Varner: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(62.0%)
Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Jamie Varner has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Jamie Varner
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe Lauzon
oldest →latest
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19Jamie VarnerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14L
KOvs James Krause · May 14L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe LauzonMetricJamie Varner
2.84
Strikes / min
2.92
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
54%
Strike defense
58%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
3.49
54%
Takedown defense
66%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe LauzonJamie Varner
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.72.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+91.0-91.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Joe Lauzon
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20
Jamie Varner
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7