Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Solecki won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 25, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Joe Solecki wins(79.2%)
Actual result: Joe Solecki wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joe Solecki threatens submissions; Carl Deaton has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Carl Deaton has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Carl Deaton has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Joe Solecki
Red Corner
VS
Carl Deaton
Blue Corner
-520
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+410
(20%)
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe SoleckiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jared Gordon · Oct 21W
vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22L
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23L
vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25Carl Deaton
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexander Munoz · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe SoleckiMetricCarl Deaton
1.97
Strikes / min
1.53
1.85
Strikes absorbed / min
1.85
50%
Strike defense
61%
2.06
TDs / 15 min
0.00
14%
Takedown defense
50%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe SoleckiCarl Deaton
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Solecki(9 fights)Carl Deaton(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+51.7-51.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.249.2
Joe Solecki
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9
Carl Deaton
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2