Lightweight
3 Rounds
Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Thursday, March 3, 2011·Louisville, Kentucky, USA, USA
Style matchupJoe Stevenson: WrestlervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(52.4%)
Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Joe Stevenson
Red Corner
VS
Danny Castillo
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
43
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe StevensonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mac Danzig · Dec 10L
vs Javier Vazquez · Jun 11Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe StevensonMetricDanny Castillo
2.05
Strikes / min
2.57
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
60%
Strike defense
62%
2.75
TDs / 15 min
2.95
39%
Takedown defense
63%
2.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joe StevensonDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Stevenson(3 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-19.519.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.648.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.349.3
Joe Stevenson
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14