Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joe StevensonL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Mac Danzig · Dec 10L
vs Javier Vazquez · Jun 11 Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joe StevensonMetricDanny Castillo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Joe StevensonDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joe Stevenson(3 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.8|Blue +4.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.3|Blue +49.3
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Joe StevensonTargetDanny Castillo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control1:00
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:30Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:29
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 3Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:15
22Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:36Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
