Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, October 24, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(75.3%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Alexander Yakovlev has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Yakovlev (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Joel Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Yakovlev
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+138
(42%)
33
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joel AlvarezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Alexander Yakovlev
oldest →latest
W
KOvs George Sullivan · Jan 16L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16L
SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16W
SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19L
vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joel AlvarezMetricAlexander Yakovlev
4.53
Strikes / min
1.74
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
2.41
53%
Strike defense
58%
0.18
TDs / 15 min
1.66
46%
Takedown defense
72%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joel AlvarezAlexander Yakovlev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.4-45.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-252.0252.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10
Alexander Yakovlev
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9