Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, June 1, 2019·Stockholm, Sweden, Sweden
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(51.4%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Joel Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Danilo Belluardo has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Joel Alvarez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Danilo Belluardo (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Joel Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Danilo Belluardo
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joel AlvarezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Danilo Belluardo
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mark Madsen · Sep 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joel AlvarezMetricDanilo Belluardo
4.53
Strikes / min
1.52
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
53%
Strike defense
41%
0.18
TDs / 15 min
3.50
46%
Takedown defense
50%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50Δ 4.77 — meaningful gap-3.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joel AlvarezDanilo Belluardo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Danilo Belluardo(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.517.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10
Danilo Belluardo
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2