Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 14, 2024·Tampa, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(52.8%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Drakkar Klose enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Joel Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Drakkar Klose has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Drakkar Klose has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Joel Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Drakkar Klose
Blue Corner
-425
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+330
(23%)
33
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joel AlvarezW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Moises · Nov 21L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Drakkar KloseW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Brandon Jenkins · Apr 22W
vs Rafa Garcia · Jul 22W
KOvs Joe Solecki · Dec 23W
vs Joaquim Silva · May 24W
vs Edson Barboza · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joel AlvarezMetricDrakkar Klose
4.53
Strikes / min
4.25
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
53%
Strike defense
49%
0.18
TDs / 15 min
1.49
46%
Takedown defense
69%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50evenly matched on net striking+0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joel AlvarezDrakkar Klose
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Drakkar Klose(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-33.833.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-91.091.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10
Drakkar Klose
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12