Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 3, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(72.1%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Elves Brener is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Joel Alvarez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Elves Brener has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Joel Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Elves Brener
Blue Corner
-166
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
33
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'10"
195.58 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joel AlvarezW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Moises · Nov 21L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Elves BrenerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23W
KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23W
KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23L
vs Myktybek Orolbai · May 24L
vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joel AlvarezMetricElves Brener
4.53
Strikes / min
4.76
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
5.86
53%
Strike defense
50%
0.18
TDs / 15 min
0.99
46%
Takedown defense
76%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap-1.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joel AlvarezElves Brener
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Elves Brener(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+21.7-21.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+287.0-287.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10
Elves Brener
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6