Lightweight
3 Rounds
Shane Roller won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 7, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJohn Alessio: Submission grapplervsShane Roller: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: John Alessio wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Shane Roller wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Shane Roller enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- John Alessio has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
John Alessio
Red Corner
VS
Shane Roller
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
46
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Alessio
oldest →latest
L
vs Mark Bocek · Apr 12Shane RollerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Tavares · Mar 11L
KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 11L
SUBvs TJ Grant · Oct 11L
vs Michael Johnson · Jan 12L
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · Oct 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John AlessioMetricShane Roller
2.10
Strikes / min
2.04
2.91
Strikes absorbed / min
2.65
54%
Strike defense
60%
1.85
TDs / 15 min
2.46
70%
Takedown defense
42%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John AlessioShane Roller
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Alessio(2 fights)Shane Roller(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.1-17.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-84.084.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
John Alessio
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2
Shane Roller
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6