Bantamweight
3 Rounds
John Castaneda won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 3, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJohn Castaneda: Pressure fightervsMuin Gafurov: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: John Castaneda wins(55.4%)
Actual result: John Castaneda wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
John Castaneda
Red Corner
VS
Muin Gafurov
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+108
(48%)
34
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John CastanedaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Miles Johns · Feb 22L
KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25Muin Gafurov
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24W
vs Rinya Nakamura · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John CastanedaMetricMuin Gafurov
4.95
Strikes / min
3.36
5.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
54%
Strike defense
55%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.57
75%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John CastanedaMuin Gafurov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Castaneda(8 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
John Castaneda
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Muin Gafurov
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5