Lightweight
3 Rounds
John Gunderson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 19, 2010·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: John Gunderson wins(65.9%)
Actual result: John Gunderson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- John Gunderson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mark Holst has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Mark Holst has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
John Gunderson
Red Corner
VS
Mark Holst
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
47
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
175.26 cm
Reach
190 cm
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Gunderson
oldest →latest
L
vs Yves Edwards · Sep 10Mark Holst
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Paul Sass · Oct 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John GundersonMetricMark Holst
1.04
Strikes / min
0.25
1.71
Strikes absorbed / min
1.67
58%
Strike defense
47%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
0.76
11%
Takedown defense
60%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.67evenly matched on net striking-1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John GundersonMark Holst
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Gunderson(2 fights)Mark Holst(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
John Gunderson
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2
Mark Holst
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2