Welterweight
3 Rounds
Lorenz Larkin won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, January 18, 2015·Boston, Massachusetts, USA, USA
Style matchupJohn Howard: WrestlervsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: John Howard wins(55.4%)
Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Lorenz Larkin has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
John Howard
Red Corner
VS
Lorenz Larkin
Blue Corner
+167
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-178
(64%)
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Howard
oldest →latest
W
vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 13L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14L
vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14W
vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15L
KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15Lorenz LarkinW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John HowardMetricLorenz Larkin
2.15
Strikes / min
3.53
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.74
51%
Strike defense
63%
2.70
TDs / 15 min
0.27
53%
Takedown defense
79%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.93Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John HowardLorenz Larkin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Howard(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.6-7.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
John Howard
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11
Lorenz Larkin
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10