Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Moraga won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Friday, September 5, 2014·Ledyard, Connecticut, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(52.2%)
Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Scoggins has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Justin Scoggins
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →latest
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18Justin ScogginsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joshua Sampo · May 15W
vs Ray Borg · Feb 16L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
vs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricJustin Scoggins
2.57
Strikes / min
3.56
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
56%
Strike defense
55%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
3.42
44%
Takedown defense
82%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+1.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John MoragaJustin Scoggins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.5-6.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+29.0-29.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
John Moraga
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14
Justin Scoggins
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9