Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matheus Nicolau won
UFC Event·Friday, July 8, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(50.1%)
Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Nicolau
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
42
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →latest
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricMatheus Nicolau
2.57
Strikes / min
3.31
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
56%
Strike defense
65%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
1.22
44%
Takedown defense
90%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.7-18.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+168.0-168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
John Moraga
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11