Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Moraga won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Model Prediction: John Moraga wins(71.3%)
Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- John Moraga has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Willie Gates has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Willie Gates has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Willie Gates
Blue Corner
-570
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+480
(17%)
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →latest
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18Willie GatesL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Darrell Montague · Jul 15L
KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 15L
vs Ulka Sasaki · May 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricWillie Gates
2.57
Strikes / min
1.80
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.28
56%
Strike defense
38%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
0.00
44%
Takedown defense
67%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-2.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
John MoragaWillie Gates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.7-34.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.348.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
John Moraga
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14
Willie Gates
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4