Welterweight
3 Rounds
Johny Hendricks won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2011·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsTJ Waldburger: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Johny Hendricks has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Johny Hendricks has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
- TJ Waldburger has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Johny Hendricks
Red Corner
VS
TJ Waldburger
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
42
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Johny HendricksL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 16W
vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17TJ WaldburgerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Johny HendricksMetricTJ Waldburger
3.49
Strikes / min
2.02
3.99
Strikes absorbed / min
2.39
53%
Strike defense
40%
3.83
TDs / 15 min
3.03
63%
Takedown defense
40%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
4.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Johny HendricksTJ Waldburger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Johny Hendricks(10 fights)TJ Waldburger(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-80.080.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Johny Hendricks
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights19
TJ Waldburger
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8