Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, September 21, 2013·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(71.7%)
Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jon Jones has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jon Jones has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Gustafsson
Blue Corner
-840
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+660
(13%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
213.36 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon JonesMetricAlexander Gustafsson
4.38
Strikes / min
4.03
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
64%
Strike defense
51%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
1.53
95%
Takedown defense
83%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jon JonesAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Jones(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.9-48.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Jon Jones
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17