Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Jon Jones won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2011·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsLyoto Machida: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(66.4%)
Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Jon Jones has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
- Jon Jones has a 25cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Lyoto Machida
Blue Corner
-475
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+420
(19%)
38
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'1"
213.36 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon JonesMetricLyoto Machida
4.38
Strikes / min
2.59
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
1.57
64%
Strike defense
61%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
1.21
95%
Takedown defense
75%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jon JonesLyoto Machida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Jones(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+89.8-89.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-147.0147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jon Jones
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16