Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jon Jones won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 5, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsRyan Bader: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Jon Jones has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jon Jones has a 25cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
-285
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+258
(28%)
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
213.36 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon JonesMetricRyan Bader
4.38
Strikes / min
2.82
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
64%
Strike defense
71%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
3.37
95%
Takedown defense
80%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jon JonesRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Jones(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.2-15.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+55.0-55.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jon Jones
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16