Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Lee won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(52.7%)
Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jon Tuck has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kevin Lee has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Kevin Lee has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jon Tuck
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Lee
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
41
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon Tuck
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15L
vs Josh Emmett · May 16L
vs Damien Brown · Nov 16W
SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17L
vs Drew Dober · Aug 18Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon TuckMetricKevin Lee
3.00
Strikes / min
3.88
3.74
Strikes absorbed / min
3.60
60%
Strike defense
50%
0.42
TDs / 15 min
3.18
50%
Takedown defense
75%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.74Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jon TuckKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Tuck(9 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.6-18.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+29.0-29.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jon Tuck
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19