Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jonathan Brookins won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Wednesday, February 15, 2012·Omaha, Nebraska, USA, USA
Style matchupJonathan Brookins: Well-roundedvsVagner Rocha: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Jonathan Brookins wins(68.8%)
Actual result: Jonathan Brookins wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jonathan Brookins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Jonathan Brookins has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Jonathan Brookins has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Brookins (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jonathan Brookins
Red Corner
VS
Vagner Rocha
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
40
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jonathan BrookinsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 10L
vs Erik Koch · Sep 11L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 12L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 12Vagner Rocha
oldest →latest
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11W
SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jonathan BrookinsMetricVagner Rocha
2.69
Strikes / min
2.64
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
56%
Strike defense
48%
1.94
TDs / 15 min
1.40
80%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.94evenly matched on net striking-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jonathan BrookinsVagner Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jonathan Brookins
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5
Vagner Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4