Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jonathan Micallef won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 31, 2026·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Style matchupJonathan Micallef: Well-roundedvsOban Elliott: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Oban Elliott wins(57.2%)
Actual result: Jonathan Micallef wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jonathan Micallef threatens submissions; Oban Elliott has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Micallef (53.5%).
- Jonathan Micallef has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jonathan Micallef
Red Corner
VS
Oban Elliott
Blue Corner
-126
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+108
(48%)
27
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jonathan Micallef
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Jousset · Feb 25Oban Elliott
oldest →latest
W
vs Val Woodburn · Feb 24W
vs Preston Parsons · Jul 24W
KOvs Bassil Hafez · Nov 24L
vs Seokhyeon Ko · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jonathan MicallefMetricOban Elliott
3.85
Strikes / min
3.62
3.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.24
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.08
TDs / 15 min
1.52
66%
Takedown defense
52%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.21Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+1.38
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jonathan MicallefOban Elliott
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jonathan Micallef(2 fights)Oban Elliott(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.511.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Jonathan Micallef
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights2
Oban Elliott
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5