Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Schnell won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 3, 2019·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupJordan Espinosa: Elusive strikervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Matt Schnell wins(51.4%)
Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Jordan Espinosa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jordan Espinosa has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jordan Espinosa
Red Corner
VS
Matt Schnell
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jordan EspinosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Eric Shelton · Mar 19L
SUBvs Alex Perez · Jan 20W
vs Mark De La Rosa · Jun 20L
vs David Dvorak · Sep 20L
vs Tim Elliott · Mar 21Matt Schnell
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24W
vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jordan EspinosaMetricMatt Schnell
4.22
Strikes / min
4.07
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
57%
Strike defense
55%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
0.60
70%
Takedown defense
43%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jordan EspinosaMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-6.36.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Jordan Espinosa
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6
Matt Schnell
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights16