Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jordan Leavitt won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJordan Leavitt: WrestlervsMatt Sayles: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(68.1%)
Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Sayles threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Matt Sayles has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jordan Leavitt
Red Corner
VS
Matt Sayles
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
30
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jordan LeavittW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 22W
KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23W
SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25W
vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26Matt Sayles
oldest →latest
L
vs Sheymon Moraes · Aug 18W
SUBvs Kyle Nelson · May 19L
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jordan LeavittMetricMatt Sayles
2.21
Strikes / min
4.83
1.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
58%
Strike defense
61%
3.15
TDs / 15 min
0.36
30%
Takedown defense
81%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+2.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jordan LeavittMatt Sayles
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jordan Leavitt(9 fights)Matt Sayles(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.8-14.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-546.0546.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
Jordan Leavitt
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9
Matt Sayles
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4