Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 22, 2025·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(51.0%)
Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Duncan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Chris Duncan threatens submissions; Jordan Vucenic has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Jordan Vucenic
Red Corner
VS
Chris Duncan
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
30
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jordan Vucenic
oldest →latest
L
vs Guram Kutateladze · Aug 24Chris DuncanW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Yanal Ashmouz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jordan VucenicMetricChris Duncan
2.11
Strikes / min
4.83
1.90
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
58%
Strike defense
50%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
2.92
44%
Takedown defense
55%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jordan VucenicChris Duncan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jordan Vucenic(2 fights)Chris Duncan(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-55.555.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Jordan Vucenic
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2
Chris Duncan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8