Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jorge Masvidal has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jorge MasvidalL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23 Nate Diaz
oldest →W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jorge MasvidalMetricNate Diaz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jorge MasvidalNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -42.5|Blue +42.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jorge MasvidalTargetNate Diaz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control2:58
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns1
Control2:05
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control1:53
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
