Welterweight
5 Rounds
Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 2, 2019·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsNate Diaz: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jorge Masvidal has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jorge Masvidal
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jorge MasvidalL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jorge MasvidalMetricNate Diaz
4.05
Strikes / min
4.57
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
64%
Strike defense
52%
1.38
TDs / 15 min
1.05
72%
Takedown defense
41%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jorge MasvidalNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.8-26.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Jorge Masvidal
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights22
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18