Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mario Bautista won · S-DEC R3
JA
MB
Jose AldovsMario Bautista
UFC Event · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(59.3%)
Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jose Aldo has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Mario Bautista
Blue Corner
+102
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-122
(55%)
39
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jose Aldo
oldest →latest
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jose AldoMetricMario Bautista
3.65
Strikes / min
5.30
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
3.98
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
1.91
92%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jose AldoMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.2-15.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jose Aldo
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14