Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 20, 2022·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(67.1%)
Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jose Aldo has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Merab Dvalishvili
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25Merab Dvalishvili
oldest →latest
W
vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24W
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25W
SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25L
vs Petr Yan · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jose AldoMetricMerab Dvalishvili
3.65
Strikes / min
4.42
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
5.97
92%
Takedown defense
76%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap+1.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jose AldoMerab Dvalishvili
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.6-26.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Jose Aldo
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23
Merab Dvalishvili
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17