Middleweight
3 Rounds
Joseph Holmes won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 21, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Joseph Holmes wins(67.0%)
Actual result: Joseph Holmes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joseph Holmes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Alen Amedovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joseph Holmes has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joseph Holmes has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Joseph Holmes
Red Corner
VS
Alen Amedovski
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
30
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
5'10"
203.2 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joseph HolmesL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jamie Pickett · Jan 22L
SUBvs JunYong Park · Oct 22L
KOvs Claudio Ribeiro · May 23Alen AmedovskiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Apr 19L
KOvs John Phillips · Sep 19L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joseph HolmesMetricAlen Amedovski
2.88
Strikes / min
0.99
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
54%
Strike defense
46%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.20Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap-2.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joseph HolmesAlen Amedovski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joseph Holmes(4 fights)Alen Amedovski(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.2-18.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-840.0840.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Joseph Holmes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4
Alen Amedovski
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4