Middleweight
3 Rounds
Claudio Ribeiro won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 6, 2023·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Joseph Holmes wins(68.0%)
Actual result: Claudio Ribeiro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Claudio Ribeiro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joseph Holmes has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Claudio Ribeiro has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Joseph Holmes
Red Corner
VS
Claudio Ribeiro
Blue Corner
+136
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-162
(62%)
30
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
203.2 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joseph Holmes
oldest →latest
L
vs Jamie Pickett · Jan 22W
SUBvs Alen Amedovski · May 22L
SUBvs JunYong Park · Oct 22Claudio RibeiroL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 23L
KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jul 23L
KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joseph HolmesMetricClaudio Ribeiro
2.88
Strikes / min
3.59
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
4.90
54%
Strike defense
30%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.56
50%
Takedown defense
66%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.20Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Joseph HolmesClaudio Ribeiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joseph Holmes(4 fights)Claudio Ribeiro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.21.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Joseph Holmes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4
Claudio Ribeiro
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4