Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ben Rothwell won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 30, 2016·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupJosh Barnett: Submission grapplervsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(64.6%)
Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Barnett has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ben Rothwell has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Barnett
Red Corner
VS
Ben Rothwell
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
48
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh BarnettW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13W
vs Roy Nelson · Sep 15W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16Ben Rothwell
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20L
vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20W
SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh BarnettMetricBen Rothwell
3.20
Strikes / min
3.71
2.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.63
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.26
TDs / 15 min
0.68
55%
Takedown defense
70%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh BarnettBen Rothwell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Barnett(5 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-25.725.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Josh Barnett
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5
Ben Rothwell
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights16