Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Josh Barnett won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, September 26, 2015·Saitama, Japan, Japan
Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(61.4%)
Actual result: Josh Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Josh Barnett has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Josh Barnett has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Josh Barnett has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Barnett
Red Corner
VS
Roy Nelson
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
48
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
198.12 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh Barnett
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh BarnettMetricRoy Nelson
3.20
Strikes / min
2.18
2.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
57%
Strike defense
46%
1.26
TDs / 15 min
1.14
55%
Takedown defense
65%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 3.70 — meaningful gap-2.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh BarnettRoy Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Barnett(5 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.1-12.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+441.0-441.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Josh Barnett
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18