Featherweight
5 Rounds
Ilia Topuria won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, June 24, 2023·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(52.8%)
Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Ilia Topuria has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Emmett
Red Corner
VS
Ilia Topuria
Blue Corner
+310
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-390
(80%)
41
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh EmmettL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26Ilia TopuriaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh EmmettMetricIlia Topuria
3.67
Strikes / min
4.81
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
59%
Strike defense
64%
1.07
TDs / 15 min
1.96
43%
Takedown defense
93%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh EmmettIlia Topuria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.4-15.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Josh Emmett
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Ilia Topuria
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9