Lightweight
3 Rounds
Josh Emmett won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 17, 2016·Sacramento, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Scott Holtzman has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Emmett
Red Corner
VS
Scott Holtzman
Blue Corner
-195
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+168
(37%)
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh EmmettL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26Scott HoltzmanL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19W
vs Jim Miller · Feb 20L
vs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21L
vs Clay Guida · Dec 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh EmmettMetricScott Holtzman
3.67
Strikes / min
4.32
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.66
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.07
TDs / 15 min
1.88
43%
Takedown defense
67%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh EmmettScott Holtzman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Scott Holtzman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.5-5.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+66.0-66.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.72.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Josh Emmett
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Scott Holtzman
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13