Welterweight
3 Rounds
Justin Edwards won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Friday, October 5, 2012·Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, USA
Style matchupJosh Neer: Submission grapplervsJustin Edwards: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Josh Neer wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Justin Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Justin Edwards threatens submissions; Josh Neer has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Josh Neer has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Neer
Red Corner
VS
Justin Edwards
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh NeerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Keith Wisniewski · Oct 11W
SUBvs Duane Ludwig · Jan 12L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Jun 12L
vs Court McGee · Feb 13Justin EdwardsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Lopez · Sep 11L
vs John Maguire · Nov 11L
KOvs Brandon Thatch · Aug 13L
vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14L
SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh NeerMetricJustin Edwards
3.29
Strikes / min
2.68
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
58%
Strike defense
51%
1.09
TDs / 15 min
2.14
46%
Takedown defense
27%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh NeerJustin Edwards
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Neer(5 fights)Justin Edwards(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.7-36.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-216.0216.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Josh Neer
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5
Justin Edwards
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7