Middleweight
3 Rounds
Josh Samman won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, July 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Josh Samman wins(66.6%)
Actual result: Josh Samman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Caio Magalhaes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Josh Samman has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Caio Magalhaes has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Caio Magalhaes has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Josh Samman has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Samman
Red Corner
VS
Caio Magalhaes
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh SammanL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Apr 13W
KOvs Eddie Gordon · Dec 14L
SUBvs Tamdan McCrory · Dec 15L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jul 16Caio Magalhaes
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Karlos Vemola · Jun 13W
vs Nick Ring · Dec 13W
KOvs Luke Zachrich · Apr 14W
KOvs Trevor Smith · Nov 14L
vs Brad Tavares · Sep 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh SammanMetricCaio Magalhaes
2.08
Strikes / min
2.27
2.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.78
34%
Strike defense
56%
1.09
TDs / 15 min
1.05
33%
Takedown defense
58%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh SammanCaio Magalhaes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Samman(5 fights)Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.017.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Josh Samman
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5
Caio Magalhaes
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7