Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 15, 2015·San Diego, California, USA, USA
Style matchupJosh Thomson: Submission grapplervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Josh Thomson
Red Corner
VS
Tony Ferguson
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh ThomsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Nate Diaz · Apr 13L
vs Benson Henderson · Jan 14L
vs Bobby Green · Jul 14Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh ThomsonMetricTony Ferguson
2.59
Strikes / min
4.91
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
64%
Strike defense
55%
1.92
TDs / 15 min
0.39
54%
Takedown defense
66%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Josh ThomsonTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Thomson(4 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-129.2129.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+217.0-217.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Josh Thomson
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24