Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Joshua Van won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1577
Elo1545
Joshua VanvsTatsuro Taira
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(52.0%)
Scouting Report
- Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Joshua Van has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Joshua Van has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Tatsuro Taira has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Joshua Van
Tatsuro Taira
—
Vegas Odds
—
1577
1545
24
26
Orthodox
Orthodox
5'5"
5'7"
165.1 cm
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Joshua Van
oldest →
vs Cody Durden · Dec 24
vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25
KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25
vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25
KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25
latestTatsuro Taira
oldest →
KOvs Carlos Hernandez · Dec 23
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24
vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24
SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Joshua VanMetricTatsuro Taira
8.43
Strikes / min
2.87
5.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
58%
Strike defense
44%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
3.57
75%
Takedown defense
46%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Joshua VanTatsuro Taira
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Joshua Van
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights11
Tatsuro Taira
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10