Heavyweight
4 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Juan Espino won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Friday, November 30, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Juan Espino wins(70.3%)
Actual result: Juan Espino wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Juan Espino has 36pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Juan Espino has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Frazier (53.5%).
- Juan Espino has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Juan Espino
Red Corner
VS
Justin Frazier
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
45
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
203.2 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Juan Espino
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jeff Hughes · Sep 20L
vs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 21Justin FrazierNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Juan EspinoMetricJustin Frazier
2.38
Strikes / min
1.11
1.95
Strikes absorbed / min
6.11
40%
Strike defense
4%
8.93
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
0%
2.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43Δ 5.43 — meaningful gap-5.00
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Juan Espino(3 fights)Justin Frazier(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Juan Espino
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights3
Justin Frazier
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights1