Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Julia Polastri won · KO/TKO R3
JP
KK
Julia PolastrivsKarolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC Event · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupJulia Polastri: Pressure fightervsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Julia Polastri wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Julia Polastri wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Julia Polastri
Red Corner
VS
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Blue Corner
-590
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+430
(19%)
28
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'2"
Height
5'3"
160.02 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julia Polastri
oldest →latest
L
vs Josefine Knutsson · Jun 24W
vs Cory McKenna · Oct 24L
vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 25Karolina KowalkiewiczL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23W
vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julia PolastriMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz
6.22
Strikes / min
5.54
5.18
Strikes absorbed / min
5.77
59%
Strike defense
56%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
0.36
57%
Takedown defense
74%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.04Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julia PolastriKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julia Polastri(4 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.317.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.12.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Julia Polastri
StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights4
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights19