Featherweight
3 Rounds
Julian Erosa won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 13, 2024·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsChristian Rodriguez: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(57.7%)
Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Julian Erosa
Red Corner
VS
Christian Rodriguez
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
36
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'7"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26Christian RodriguezL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · Oct 23W
vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24W
vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25L
vs Andre Fili · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricChristian Rodriguez
6.18
Strikes / min
3.85
6.31
Strikes absorbed / min
2.85
48%
Strike defense
56%
1.73
TDs / 15 min
1.75
61%
Takedown defense
67%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julian ErosaChristian Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Christian Rodriguez(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.736.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Christian Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9