Featherweight
3 Rounds
Fernando Padilla won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 29, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsFernando Padilla: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(70.5%)
Actual result: Fernando Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
- Fernando Padilla has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Julian Erosa
Red Corner
VS
Fernando Padilla
Blue Corner
-158
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+134
(43%)
36
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26Fernando Padilla
oldest →latest
L
vs Kyle Nelson · Sep 23W
SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24L
KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricFernando Padilla
6.18
Strikes / min
6.07
6.31
Strikes absorbed / min
5.74
48%
Strike defense
52%
1.73
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
100%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julian ErosaFernando Padilla
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Fernando Padilla(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.6-12.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.848.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Fernando Padilla
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4