Featherweight
3 Rounds
Lerryan Douglas won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsLerryan Douglas: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(53.7%)
Actual result: Lerryan Douglas wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lerryan Douglas is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
- Lerryan Douglas has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Julian Erosa has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Julian Erosa
Red Corner
VS
Lerryan Douglas
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
36
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian Erosa
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25Lerryan DouglasNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricLerryan Douglas
6.18
Strikes / min
8.67
6.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.82
48%
Strike defense
63%
1.73
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13Δ 3.98 — meaningful gap+3.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julian ErosaLerryan Douglas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Lerryan Douglas(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.1-33.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Lerryan Douglas
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights1