Lightweight
3 Rounds
Julian Erosa won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Friday, December 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsMarcin Wrzosek: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Marcin Wrzosek wins(59.6%)
Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Julian Erosa has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
- Julian Erosa has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Julian Erosa
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Wrzosek
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
36
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
178 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26Marcin WrzosekNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricMarcin Wrzosek
6.18
Strikes / min
3.47
6.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.07
48%
Strike defense
43%
1.73
TDs / 15 min
3.00
61%
Takedown defense
33%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.60
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Marcin Wrzosek(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Marcin Wrzosek
Stance—
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights1