Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melquizael Costa won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 17, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(70.4%)
Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Julian Erosa threatens submissions; Melquizael Costa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Julian Erosa
Red Corner
VS
Melquizael Costa
Blue Corner
+138
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-164
(62%)
36
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian Erosa
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 24W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricMelquizael Costa
6.18
Strikes / min
4.38
6.31
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
48%
Strike defense
54%
1.73
TDs / 15 min
2.00
61%
Takedown defense
58%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julian ErosaMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.1-15.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18
Melquizael Costa
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9