Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Herbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Julio Arce is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Herbert Burns has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Julio Arce has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Julio Arce has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julio Arce
oldest →L
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Nov 19W
KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21W
vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22L
vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22 Herbert BurnsL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20W
SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20L
KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20L
KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22L
KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julio ArceMetricHerbert Burns
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.31Δ 4.62 — meaningful gap-3.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Julio ArceHerbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julio Arce(10 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +19.9|Blue -19.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julio ArceTargetHerbert Burns
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Herbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:06
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 2Julio Arce edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns2
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
0Knockdowns
