Featherweight
3 Rounds
Julio Arce won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 30, 2024·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsHerbert Burns: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Herbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Julio Arce is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Herbert Burns has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Julio Arce has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Julio Arce has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Julio Arce
Red Corner
VS
Herbert Burns
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
36
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julio Arce
oldest →latest
L
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Nov 19W
KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21W
vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22L
vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22Herbert BurnsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20W
SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20L
KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20L
KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22L
KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julio ArceMetricHerbert Burns
4.36
Strikes / min
1.86
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
5.17
68%
Strike defense
41%
0.46
TDs / 15 min
2.94
96%
Takedown defense
66%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.31Δ 4.62 — meaningful gap-3.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julio ArceHerbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julio Arce(10 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.4-16.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
Julio Arce
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Herbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6